Texas Rangers at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Adolis GarciaBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jon GrayPitching5.0 IP, 8 ER, 1 K
Orioles- Heston KjerstadBatting2-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Corbin BurnesPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Rutschman hit sacrifice fly to left, Mullins scored.2–11
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–11
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–10
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–10
- 8Cowser homered to center (411 feet).2–10
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–10
- 8Lowe singled to left, Smith scored.2–9
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–9
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 11–9
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–9
- 7Rutschman homered to right (386 feet).1–9
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–9
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 21–8
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–8
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 11–8
- 4Mullins homered to right (380 feet), Cowser scored.1–8
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–8
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–6
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–6
- 4García homered to left (404 feet).1–6
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–6
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–6
- 3Kjerstad homered to center (415 feet), O'Hearn scored.0–6
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–6
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–4
- 3Mountcastle hit sacrifice fly to center, Henderson scored.0–4
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 1Westburg doubled to right, Kjerstad scored and O'Hearn scored, Westburg out stretching at third.0–3
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–3
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 20–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 1Kjerstad singled to right, Henderson scored, O'Hearn to third.0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 65%
- ML TEX +170 / BAL -210
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.9 pts
- BAL: Elo 59.8%, market 64.7%
- Fair odds
- BAL -183
- TEX +183 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 3.1 – 4.4 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1511 | 1561 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | +7 | TEX: Jon Gray: team allows 0.25 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BAL: Corbin Burnes: team allows 0.33 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +69 Elo | BAL 59.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 61.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 61.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 64.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TEX | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 5.21st of 30 |
| 14th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 3.87th of 30 |
| 16th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +1.43rd of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3017–24 | Road vs home | 26–169th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 35–45 | 46–34 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 18–28 | 33–30 |
| Underdog | 17–17 | 13–4 |
| Overs–unders | 31–48–1 | 43–35–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 6–3 BAL in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 9.
- Oct 10BAL 1 @ TEX 7PlayoffsPicked TEX 51%Hit
- Oct 8TEX 11 @ BAL 8PlayoffsPicked BAL 54%Miss
- Oct 7TEX 3 @ BAL 2PlayoffsPicked BAL 55%Miss
- May 28TEX 2 @ BAL 3Picked BAL 53%Hit
- May 27TEX 5 @ BAL 3Picked BAL 53%Miss
- May 26TEX 12 @ BAL 2Picked BAL 52%Miss
- Apr 5BAL 2 @ TEX 5Picked TEX 53%Hit
- Apr 4BAL 7 @ TEX 2Picked TEX 53%Miss