Skip to content
ShadowCryptsPredictions
Live
MLB games
Updated

Texas Rangers at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast

Final

Away

Rangers

37-45

1–2

at

Home

Orioles

52-30

TEX 47%BAL 53%

You didn't pick this one.

Oriole Park at Camden Yards

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.

BAL75%50%75%TEXStart1234567Final

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Rangers
  • Leody TaverasBatting1-3, 1 RBI
  • Max ScherzerPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Orioles
  • Colton CowserBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
  • Albert SuarezPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 K

Scoring summary

  • 7Taveras walked, García scored, Jankowski to second, Langford to third.1–2
  • 7Pitch 6 : Ball 41–2
  • 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
  • 7Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
  • 7Pitch 3 : Ball 30–2
  • 7Pitch 2 : Ball 20–2
  • 7Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
  • 5Henderson singled to right, Mateo scored on error, Henderson safe at second on throwing error by right fielder Jankowski.0–2
  • 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–2
  • 4Cowser homered to right center (408 feet).0–1
  • 4Pitch 8 : Ball In Play0–1
  • 4Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
  • 4Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
  • 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
  • 4Pitch 4 : Ball 30–0
  • 4Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
  • 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
  • 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Orioles 53%

Toss-upHit
TEX 47%BAL 53%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.

Market
BAL 53%
ML TEX +105 / BAL -125
Pre-line forecast
BAL 58%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
BAL 59%
Ratings vs. market
+5.6 pts
BAL: Elo 58.8%, market 53.2%
Fair odds
BAL -114
TEX +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
TEX 4.1 – 4.4 BAL
Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorTEXBALWhy
Team rating15091563Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+18Worth 18 Elo in MLB
Starting pitchers+8−3TEX: Max Scherzer: team allows 0.40 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BAL: Albert Suarez: team allows 0.13 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsBAL +62 EloBAL 58.8%
Market-implied ratingsBAL 57.9%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastBAL 58.0%15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastBAL 53.2%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.

Try another venue →
Texas Rangers and Baltimore Orioles compared, with each team's league rank
TEXStatBAL
18th of 304.2Runs scored5.31st of 30
17th of 304.4Runs allowed3.86th of 30
17th of 30−0.2Margin+1.52nd of 30
17th of 304–6Last 104–617th of 30
23rd of 3017–25Road vs home27–168th of 30

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

RangersOrioles
145015001550league averageAprJulOctJanAprJul

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonTEXBAL
Run line35–4647–34
Last 105–54–6
Favorite18–2834–30
Underdog17–1813–4
Overs–unders32–48–144–35–2
Overs–unders, last 106–46–4

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

TEX 6–4 BAL in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 10.