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Texas Rangers at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast

FinalFox

Away

Rangers

37-46

5–6

at

Home

Orioles

53-30

TEX 39%BAL 61%

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Oriole Park at Camden Yards · Fox

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.

BAL75%50%75%TEXStart1234567Final

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Rangers
  • Nathaniel LoweBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
  • Michael LorenzenPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Orioles
  • Heston KjerstadBatting1-1, 1 HR, 4 RBI
  • Cade PovichPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K

Scoring summary

  • 8García homered to center (397 feet).5–6
  • 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–6
  • 8Pitch 4 : Ball 24–6
  • 8Pitch 3 : Ball 14–6
  • 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging4–6
  • 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–6
  • 7Santander hit a ground rule double, Rutschman scored, Mountcastle to third.4–6
  • 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–6
  • 7Pitch 2 : Ball 24–5
  • 7Pitch 1 : Ball 14–5
  • 6Lowe homered to left center (390 feet), Grossman scored.4–5
  • 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–5
  • 5Kjerstad homered to center (395 feet), Henderson scored, O'Hearn scored and Santander scored.2–5
  • 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–5
  • 5Pitch 2 : Ball 12–1
  • 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–1
  • 5Hill homered to center (413 feet).2–1
  • 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–1
  • 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
  • 2Santander homered to right center (440 feet).1–1
  • 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
  • 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
  • 1Seager homered to right (416 feet).1–0
  • 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–0
  • 1Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
  • 1Pitch 4 : Ball 30–0
  • 1Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
  • 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
  • 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Orioles 61%

LeanHit
TEX 39%BAL 61%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.

Market
BAL 61%
ML TEX +145 / BAL -175
Pre-line forecast
BAL 60%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
BAL 60%
Ratings vs. market
−0.5 pts
BAL: Elo 60.4%, market 60.9%
Fair odds
BAL -156
TEX +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
TEX 4.3 – 5.2 BAL
Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorTEXBALWhy
Team rating15081564Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+18Worth 18 Elo in MLB
Starting pitchers−8−9TEX: Michael Lorenzen: team allows 0.42 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BAL: Cade Povich: team allows 0.47 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsBAL +73 EloBAL 60.4%
Market-implied ratingsBAL 60.4%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastBAL 60.4%15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastBAL 60.9%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.

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Texas Rangers and Baltimore Orioles compared, with each team's league rank
TEXStatBAL
18th of 304.2Runs scored5.21st of 30
16th of 304.4Runs allowed3.86th of 30
18th of 30−0.2Margin+1.51st of 30
17th of 304–6Last 105–512th of 30
25th of 3017–26Road vs home28–167th of 30

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

RangersOrioles
145015001550league averageAprJulOctJanAprJul

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonTEXBAL
Run line36–4647–35
Last 106–44–6
Favorite18–2834–31
Underdog18–1813–4
Overs–unders32–49–144–36–2
Overs–unders, last 105–56–4

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

TEX 6–5 BAL in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 11.