Los Angeles Angels at Oakland Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors OAK.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Nolan SchanuelBatting2-4, 4 RBI
- Jose SorianoPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Athletics- Lawrence ButlerBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Mitch SpencePitching5.1 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Rengifo singled to right, Schanuel scored.5–7
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–7
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking4–7
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging4–7
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 14–7
- 9Schanuel doubled to center, Drury scored.4–7
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–7
- 7Schanuel singled to left, Drury scored and Moniak scored.3–7
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–7
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 31–7
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul1–7
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 21–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 11–7
- 6Bleday singled to right, B. Harris scored.1–7
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–7
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 21–6
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 11–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–6
- 6B. Harris doubled to left, Butler scored and Gelof scored.1–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–6
- 5Schanuel hit sacrifice fly to left, Drury scored.1–4
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–4
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 30–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 20–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 10–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–4
- 4Butler homered to left (344 feet), Langeliers scored and Gelof scored.0–4
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 4Rooker homered to center (405 feet).0–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Athletics 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- OAK 50%
- ML LAA -110 / OAK -110
- Pre-line forecast
- OAK 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OAK 45%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.7 pts
- OAK: Elo 45.3%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- OAK -100
- LAA -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 3.8 – 3.8 OAK
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | OAK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1465 | 1416 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | +2 | LAA: Jose Soriano: team allows 0.19 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · OAK: Mitch Spence: team allows 0.12 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAA +32 Elo | LAA 54.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OAK 50.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAA 50.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OAK 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAA | Stat | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 3.628th of 30 |
| 27th of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 4.825th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−0.8 | Margin | −1.327th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 2–829th of 30 |
| 18th of 3018–21 | Road vs home | 18–2326th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 47–36 | 40–45 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 4–14 | 3–6 |
| Underdog | 43–22 | 37–39 |
| Overs–unders | 43–40 | 39–46 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 10–6 OAK in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 16.