Los Angeles Angels at Oakland Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors OAK.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Nolan SchanuelBatting1-4
- Roansy ContrerasPitching2.2 IP, 2 ER, 1 K
Athletics- Lawrence ButlerBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- JP SearsPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Butler homered to center (400 feet).0–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 10–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–4
- 6Schuemann sacrificed to pitcher, Gelof scored, Butler to second.0–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Bunted Foul0–3
- 3Soderstrom hit sacrifice fly to center, Andujar scored.0–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 3Rooker singled to left, Bleday scored, Andujar to third.0–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–2
- 3Andujar singled to left, B. Harris scored, Andujar to second, Bleday to second, Bleday safe at third on fielding error by left fielder Ward.0–1
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Athletics 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- OAK 51%
- ML LAA -105 / OAK -115
- Pre-line forecast
- OAK 47%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OAK 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.4 pts
- OAK: Elo 46.7%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- OAK -104
- LAA +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 4.7 – 4.8 OAK
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | OAK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1460 | 1421 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | +3 | LAA: Roansy Contreras: team allows 0.21 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · OAK: JP Sears: team allows 0.13 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAA +23 Elo | LAA 53.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAA 53.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAA 53.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OAK 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAA | Stat | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 3.628th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 4.824th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−0.8 | Margin | −1.127th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–722nd of 30 |
| 20th of 3018–23 | Road vs home | 20–2323rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 47–38 | 42–45 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 4–15 | 4–6 |
| Underdog | 43–23 | 38–39 |
| Overs–unders | 44–41 | 40–47 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 10–8 OAK in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 18.