Los Angeles Angels at Oakland Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors OAK.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Matt ThaissBatting2-3
- Davis DanielPitching5.1 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Athletics- Brent RookerBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Joey EstesPitching9.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 6B. Harris singled to left, Langeliers scored, Gelof to second.0–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–5
- 6Rooker homered to left (389 feet).0–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–3
- 5Schuemann homered to left (376 feet).0–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–2
- 2Butler scored, B. Harris caught stealing second, catcher to shortstop to first.0–2
- 2Butler scored, B. Harris caught stealing second, catcher to shortstop to first.0–2
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking0–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 20–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 2B. Harris grounded into fielder's choice to pitcher, Gelof scored on error, Butler to second, Butler safe at third on throwing error by pitcher Daniel.0–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Angels 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- LAA 52%
- ML LAA -120 / OAK +100
- Pre-line forecast
- LAA 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAA 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.7 pts
- LAA: Elo 55.9%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- LAA -109
- OAK +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 4.3 – 4.2 OAK
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | OAK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1463 | 1418 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | −5 | LAA: Davis Daniel: team allows 0.45 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · OAK: Joey Estes: team allows 0.26 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAA +41 Elo | LAA 55.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAA 50.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAA 51.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAA 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAA | Stat | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 3.628th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 4.825th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−0.8 | Margin | −1.227th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 18th of 3018–22 | Road vs home | 19–2326th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 47–37 | 41–45 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 4–14 | 4–6 |
| Underdog | 43–23 | 37–39 |
| Overs–unders | 44–40 | 40–46 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 10–7 OAK in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 17.