Baltimore Orioles at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Anthony SantanderBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Grayson RodriguezPitching6.1 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Mariners- Josh RojasBatting2-2
- George KirbyPitching6.1 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7Mullins singled to center, Westburg scored, Cowser to third.2–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 4Santander singled to right, Henderson scored, Rutschman to second.1–0
- 4Pitch 10 : Ball In Play1–0
- 4Pitch 9 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 4Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 4Pitch 7 : Ball 20–0
- 4Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 10–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 50%
- ML BAL -110 / SEA -110
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 44%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.5 pts
- SEA: Elo 48.5%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- SEA -100
- BAL -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 3.3 – 3.3 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1561 | 1518 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −11 | +3 | BAL: Grayson Rodriguez: team allows 0.55 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SEA: George Kirby: team allows 0.14 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +11 Elo | BAL 51.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 56.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 56.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BAL | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.2 | Runs scored | 3.927th of 30 |
| 6th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 3.84th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+1.3 | Margin | +0.115th of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 1st of 3024–14 | Road vs home | 28–144th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 47–37 | 37–48 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 34–33 | 21–33 |
| Underdog | 13–4 | 16–15 |
| Overs–unders | 46–36–2 | 34–49–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 6–3 SEA in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 9.