Baltimore Orioles at Oakland Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors OAK.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Heston KjerstadBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Grayson RodriguezPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 8 K
Athletics- Tyler SoderstromBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Mitch SpencePitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Henderson singled to center, Mateo scored, Urías to second.6–3
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play6–3
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball 25–3
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul5–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 15–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging5–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–3
- 7Bleday grounded into fielder's choice to third, Butler scored on error, B. Harris out at second, Bleday safe at second on throwing error by shortstop Henderson.5–3
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul5–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 15–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–2
- 6Langeliers hit sacrifice fly to left, Rooker scored, Soderstrom to third.5–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–2
- 6Soderstrom doubled to left, Bleday scored, Rooker to third.5–1
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 35–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 25–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 15–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–0
- 3Kjerstad reaches on a fielding error by center fielder Bleday, Santander scores, Kjerstad to 3rd.5–0
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play5–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 34–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking4–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 24–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
- 1Kjerstad homered to center (406 feet), O'Hearn scored and Westburg scored.4–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 1Santander homered to right (363 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 62%
- ML BAL -185 / OAK +150
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.8 pts
- BAL: Elo 64.7%, market 61.9%
- Fair odds
- BAL -162
- OAK +162 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 4.3 – 3.2 OAK
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | OAK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1557 | 1428 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | +2 | BAL: Grayson Rodriguez: team allows 0.17 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · OAK: Mitch Spence: team allows 0.10 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +105 Elo | BAL 64.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 65.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 65.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 61.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BAL | Stat | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.1 | Runs scored | 3.828th of 30 |
| 9th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.723rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+1.2 | Margin | −0.927th of 30 |
| 1st of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–57th of 30 |
| 1st of 3027–16 | Road vs home | 22–2419th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 49–40 | 45–45 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 34–36 | 5–6 |
| Underdog | 15–4 | 40–39 |
| Overs–unders | 48–39–2 | 41–49 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 8–4 OAK in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 12.