Baltimore Orioles at Oakland Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors OAK.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Adley RutschmanBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Cole IrvinPitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Athletics- Brent RookerBatting3-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Luis MedinaPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Urías singled to center, Hays scored.8–19
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play8–19
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul7–19
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking7–19
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–19
- 9Mountcastle homered to center (420 feet).7–19
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–19
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 16–19
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–19
- 8McCann homered to center (406 feet), Schuemann scored.6–19
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–19
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 26–19
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 16–17
- 8Kjerstad singled to right, Mateo scored, Rutschman to second.6–17
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–17
- 8Mateo grounded into fielder's choice to second, Mullins scored on throwing error by second baseman Gelof, Mateo to second, Urías out at second.5–17
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–17
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 14–17
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging4–17
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–17
- 7Rutschman homered to left (366 feet), Urías scored and Mateo scored.4–17
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–17
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–17
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 11–17
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–17
- 6Rooker hit sacrifice fly to left, Cameron scored.1–17
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–17
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 21–16
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–16
- 6Andujar doubled to center, Nevin scored and B. Harris scored, Cameron to third.1–16
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–16
- 4Andujar singled to left, B. Harris scored, Schuemann to third.1–14
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–14
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–13
- 4Nevin homered to left center (415 feet).1–13
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–13
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–12
- 4Hays hit sacrifice fly to right, Westburg scored.1–12
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–12
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 20–12
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 59%
- ML BAL -155 / OAK +135
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.5 pts
- BAL: Elo 65.3%, market 58.8%
- Fair odds
- BAL -143
- OAK +143 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 4.6 – 3.9 OAK
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | OAK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1562 | 1423 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | +2 | BAL: Cade Povich: team allows 0.42 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · OAK: Luis Medina: team allows 0.12 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +110 Elo | BAL 65.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 64.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 64.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 58.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BAL | Stat | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.1 | Runs scored | 3.628th of 30 |
| 4th of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 4.723rd of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.3 | Margin | −1.127th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 1st of 3027–15 | Road vs home | 21–2421st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 49–39 | 44–45 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 34–35 | 5–6 |
| Underdog | 15–4 | 39–39 |
| Overs–unders | 47–39–2 | 40–49 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 8–3 OAK in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 11.