Oakland Athletics at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Zack GelofBatting3-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Tyler FergusonPitching2.1 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Red Sox- Wilyer AbreuBatting1-3, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Brayan BelloPitching5.1 IP, 5 ER, 11 K
Scoring summary
- 9Gelof homered to center (419 feet), Andujar scored and Rooker scored.9–12
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play9–12
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 36–12
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 26–12
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 16–12
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging6–12
- 8Abreu hit sacrifice fly to left, Devers scored.6–12
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–12
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–11
- 7Gelof hit sacrifice fly to center, Rooker scored.6–11
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–11
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 25–11
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul5–11
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking5–11
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 15–11
- 6Butler homered to right center (457 feet), Langeliers scored and Gelof scored.5–11
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–11
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–11
- 2Smith homered to right (407 feet).2–11
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–11
- 2Abreu homered to right center (430 feet), Wong scored and Yoshida scored.2–10
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–10
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 12–7
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–7
- 2Yoshida singled to center, Devers scored, Wong to third.2–7
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–7
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–6
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 12–6
- 2Devers doubled to center, O'Neill scored.2–6
- 2Pitch 8 : Ball In Play2–6
- 2Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul2–5
- 2Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul2–5
- 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging2–5
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 32–5
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking2–5
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 22–5
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 12–5
- 2Duran hit sacrifice fly to center, Rafaela scored.2–5
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–5
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–4
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 65%
- ML OAK +175 / BOS -210
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.9 pts
- BOS: Elo 62.2%, market 65.1%
- Fair odds
- BOS -186
- OAK +186 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OAK 4.6 – 5.9 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OAK | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1427 | 1510 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | −12 | OAK: Joey Estes: team allows 0.15 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · BOS: Brayan Bello: team allows 0.59 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +86 Elo | BOS 62.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 62.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 62.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 65.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| OAK | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.8 | Runs scored | 4.612th of 30 |
| 24th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.212th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−1.0 | Margin | +0.411th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–43rd of 30 |
| 29th of 3012–33 | Road vs home | 20–2424th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season | OAK |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 45–46 | 41–49 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 5–6 | 15–32 |
| Underdog | 40–40 | 26–17 |
| Overs–unders | 42–49 | 43–45–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OAK 2–7 BOS in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 9.