Oakland Athletics at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Seth BrownBatting1-3
- Luis MedinaPitching5.0 IP, 6 ER, 7 K
Red Sox- Masataka YoshidaBatting3-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Tanner HouckPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 6Yoshida homered to right center (387 feet), Wong scored.0–7
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–7
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking0–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 30–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Automatic Ball - Pitch Timer Violation 10–5
- 4Abreu homered to center (399 feet).0–5
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–5
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–4
- 3Wong homered to left center (420 feet).0–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 1Abreu doubled to right, Wong scored, Yoshida to third.0–3
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–3
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 1Yoshida singled to right, Duran scored and Hamilton scored, Wong to third.0–2
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 67%
- ML OAK +195 / BOS -230
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.9 pts
- BOS: Elo 64.4%, market 67.3%
- Fair odds
- BOS -206
- OAK +206 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OAK 4.0 – 5.5 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OAK | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1428 | 1509 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | +1 | OAK: Luis Medina: team allows 0.16 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · BOS: Tanner Houck: team allows 0.03 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +103 Elo | BOS 64.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 67.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 66.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 67.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| OAK | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 303.8 | Runs scored | 4.711th of 30 |
| 25th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.314th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−0.9 | Margin | +0.411th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–31st of 30 |
| 28th of 3013–34 | Road vs home | 21–2525th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season | OAK |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 46–47 | 42–50 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 5–6 | 16–33 |
| Underdog | 41–41 | 26–17 |
| Overs–unders | 43–50 | 44–46–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OAK 3–8 BOS in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 11.