Kansas City Royals at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Salvador PerezBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Michael WachaPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Cardinals- Lars NootbaarBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Gordon GraceffoPitching3.1 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Isbel homered to right (382 feet).8–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play8–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–5
- 7Contreras grounded out to shortstop, Carlson scored.7–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 17–4
- 7Pasquantino singled to left, Isbel scored, Witt Jr. to second.7–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul6–4
- 6Perez homered to left center (438 feet).6–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–4
- 5Goldschmidt reached on infield single to third, Burleson scored.5–4
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 25–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 15–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–3
- 5Burleson doubled to center, Contreras scored on error, Burleson safe at third on throwing error by shortstop Witt Jr..5–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–3
- 5Witt Jr. hit sacrifice fly to right, Frazier scored.5–2
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul4–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–2
- 5Frazier singled to left, Isbel scored, Frazier to third.4–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–2
- 4Gorman hit a ground rule double, Nootbaar scored.3–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 4Renfroe singled to left, Pasquantino scored.3–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging2–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 4Perez hit sacrifice fly to right, Witt Jr. scored.2–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–1
- 3Melendez homered to right center (396 feet).1–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cardinals 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- STL 52%
- ML KC +100 / STL -120
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- 0.0 pts
- STL: Elo 52.1%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- STL -109
- KC +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 4.2 – 4.3 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1489 | 1485 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | −3 | KC: Michael Wacha: team allows 0.17 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · STL: Gordon Graceffo (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | STL +15 Elo | STL 52.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 52.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 52.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| KC | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.123rd of 30 |
| 6th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.519th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.6 | Margin | −0.423rd of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3019–25 | Road vs home | 23–1913th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 52–40 | 45–45 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 20–21 | 14–26 |
| Underdog | 32–19 | 31–19 |
| Overs–unders | 39–52–1 | 42–46–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 3–2 STL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.