San Francisco Giants at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Tyler FitzgeraldBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Logan WebbPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Rockies- Ezequiel TovarBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Kyle FreelandPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 6Flores doubled to center, Chapman scored.3–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–4
- 5Tovar homered to left (455 feet), Hilliard scored.2–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–4
- 5Fitzgerald doubled to left, Yastrzemski scored.2–2
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 32–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul2–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 22–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 3Fitzgerald homered to left center (420 feet).1–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 11–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 1Doyle reached on infield single to first, Tovar scored.0–2
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 1Díaz grounded into double play, second to shortstop to first, Blackmon scored, McMahon out at second, Tovar to third.0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Giants 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SF 60%
- ML SF -165 / COL +140
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.5 pts
- SF: Elo 56.4%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- SF -149
- COL +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 5.2 – 4.3 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1486 | 1419 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | +5 | SF: Logan Webb: team allows 0.06 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · COL: Kyle Freeland: team allows 0.26 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +45 Elo | SF 56.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 67.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 65.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SF 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SF | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.221st of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 5.930th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.3 | Margin | −1.729th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 25th of 3019–28 | Road vs home | 21–2526th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 48–49 | 46–49 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 17–29 | 1–5 |
| Underdog | 31–20 | 45–43 |
| Overs–unders | 53–43–1 | 53–42 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 14–6 COL in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 20.