Colorado Rockies at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Charlie BlackmonBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Ryan FeltnerPitching3.2 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Mets- Francisco LindorBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Christian ScottPitching4.1 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Lindor homered to center (420 feet), Gamel scored and Torrens scored.3–7
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–7
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 23–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 13–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–4
- 5Blackmon homered to right (420 feet), Hilliard scored.3–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 21–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–4
- 3Cave homered to left (345 feet).1–4
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–4
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 30–4
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 20–4
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 10–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–4
- 2McNeil doubled to center, Gamel scored and Torrens scored.0–4
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–4
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–4
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–4
- 2Torrens grounded into fielder's choice to second, Alonso scored and Stewart scored, Gamel safe at second on throwing error by second baseman Rodgers, Torrens to second, Gamel to third.0–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 64%
- ML COL +165 / NYM -200
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.3 pts
- NYM: Elo 65.2%, market 63.9%
- Fair odds
- NYM -177
- COL +177 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.1 – 4.4 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1415 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −11 | −12 | COL: Ryan Feltner: team allows 0.56 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · NYM: Christian Scott: team allows 0.59 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +109 Elo | NYM 65.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 62.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 63.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 63.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| COL | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.97th of 30 |
| 30th of 305.9 | Runs allowed | 4.724th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.8 | Margin | +0.114th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 29th of 3013–35 | Road vs home | 25–2417th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 44–48 | 42–50 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 1–5 | 18–30 |
| Underdog | 43–42 | 24–20 |
| Overs–unders | 51–41 | 49–43 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 4–3 NYM in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.