New York Mets at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Brandon NimmoBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Christian ScottPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Pirates- Oneil CruzBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Mitch KellerPitching8.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Palacios grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Hayes scored, N. Gonzales out at second.2–8
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–8
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–7
- 6Palacios homered to right (374 feet).2–7
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–7
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul2–6
- 6N. Gonzales scored on Houser wild pitch.2–6
- 6N. Gonzales scored on Houser wild pitch.2–6
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 22–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–5
- 6N. Gonzales doubled to right, Tellez scored on fielding error by right fielder McNeil and Cruz scored, N. Gonzales to third.2–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–5
- 6Tellez reached on infield single to third, Reynolds scored, Cruz to second.2–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 6Nimmo homered to center (428 feet), Bader scored.2–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 30–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 20–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 4Cruz homered to center (431 feet), McCutchen scored.0–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pirates 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 52%
- ML NYM +100 / PIT -120
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.3 pts
- PIT: Elo 51.8%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- PIT -109
- NYM +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 4.2 – 4.3 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1477 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | +13 | NYM: Christian Scott: team allows 0.36 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · PIT: Mitch Keller: team allows 0.64 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +13 Elo | PIT 51.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 51.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 51.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYM | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.123rd of 30 |
| 25th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.416th of 30 |
| 16th of 300.0 | Margin | −0.322nd of 30 |
| 8th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–623rd of 30 |
| 7th of 3022–19 | Road vs home | 21–2420th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 39–48 | 43–44 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 15–29 | 10–26 |
| Underdog | 24–19 | 33–18 |
| Overs–unders | 46–41 | 42–45 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 8–4 PIT in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 12.