New York Mets at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Jeff McNeilBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Luis SeverinoPitching6.0 IP, 7 ER, 3 K
Pirates- Bryan ReynoldsBatting4-5, 2 HR, 6 RBI
- Paul SkenesPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 8Tellez homered to center (403 feet), Palacios scored, Reynolds scored and Cruz scored.2–14
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–14
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul2–10
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 22–10
- 8Pitch 1 : Automatic Ball - Pitch Timer Violation 12–10
- 8Taylor homered to right (358 feet).2–10
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–10
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–9
- 8Grandal homered to center (413 feet).2–9
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–9
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–8
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–8
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–8
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging2–8
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–8
- 7Reynolds homered to center (413 feet), Grandal scored, Taylor scored and Palacios scored.2–8
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–8
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 22–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 12–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging2–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–4
- 5Reynolds homered to right center (399 feet), Palacios scored.2–4
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–4
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging2–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 22–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 12–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–2
- 4Suwinski homered to right center (394 feet).2–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–2
- 4Tellez homered to right center (425 feet).2–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 12–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 4Iglesias grounded into fielder's choice to second, Alonso scored, Alvarez out at second.2–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 3McNeil homered to right (390 feet).1–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pirates 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 56%
- ML NYM +120 / PIT -140
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.2 pts
- PIT: Elo 52.0%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- PIT -128
- NYM +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 3.5 – 4.0 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1476 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −9 | +13 | NYM: Luis Severino: team allows 0.46 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PIT: Paul Skenes: team allows 0.64 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +14 Elo | PIT 52.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 55.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 55.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 56.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYM | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.024th of 30 |
| 24th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.420th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −0.422nd of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 9th of 3020–18 | Road vs home | 20–2220th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 38–46 | 41–43 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 14–28 | 9–26 |
| Underdog | 24–18 | 32–17 |
| Overs–unders | 45–39 | 41–43 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 6–3 PIT in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 9.