New York Mets at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Francisco LindorBatting3-4, 2 RBI
- Sean ManaeaPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Pirates- Nick GonzalesBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Luis OrtizPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Lindor singled to left, Bader scored and Gamel scored, Iglesias to second.3–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 8N. Gonzales singled to left, McCutchen scored and Suwinski scored, Palacios to second.1–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–2
- 8Nimmo doubled to center, Lindor scored.1–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 54%
- ML NYM -130 / PIT +110
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.8 pts
- NYM: Elo 50.5%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- NYM -119
- PIT +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 4.9 – 4.6 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1478 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | +7 | NYM: Sean Manaea: team allows 0.26 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · PIT: Luis Ortiz: team allows 0.34 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +4 Elo | NYM 50.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 52.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 52.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYM | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.122nd of 30 |
| 25th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.417th of 30 |
| 15th of 300.0 | Margin | −0.321st of 30 |
| 9th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–59th of 30 |
| 8th of 3021–19 | Road vs home | 21–2320th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 39–47 | 42–44 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 15–28 | 10–26 |
| Underdog | 24–19 | 32–18 |
| Overs–unders | 46–40 | 42–44 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 7–4 PIT in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 11.