Washington Nationals at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Juan YepezBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Patrick CorbinPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Mets- Brandon NimmoBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Luis SeverinoPitching6.1 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Taylor tripled to right, Iglesias scored.2–6
- 8Pitch 8 : Ball In Play2–6
- 8Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul2–6
- 8Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul2–6
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 22–6
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–6
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging2–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 12–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–6
- 6Bader grounded into fielder's choice to third, Iglesias scored on throwing error by second baseman L. García Jr., Taylor safe at second on error.2–5
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–5
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Swinging2–5
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 32–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 22–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–5
- 6Iglesias singled to center, Alonso scored and Vientos scored, Iglesias to second, Alvarez thrown out at third.2–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–4
- 6Vientos doubled to right, Martinez scored, Alonso to third.2–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–2
- 4Yepez singled to right, Ruiz scored on error and Thomas scored on throwing error by right fielder Taylor, Yepez to second.2–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 1Nimmo homered to right center (440 feet).0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 63%
- ML WSH +160 / NYM -190
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.8 pts
- NYM: Elo 56.2%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- NYM -170
- WSH +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 4.2 – 5.3 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1473 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −18 | −20 | WSH: Patrick Corbin: team allows 0.89 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYM: Luis Severino: team allows 1.01 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +43 Elo | NYM 56.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 63.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 62.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 63.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| WSH | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.88th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.824th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.3 | Margin | 0.017th of 30 |
| 26th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 18th of 3022–26 | Road vs home | 22–2419th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 52–40 | 40–49 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 8–9 | 16–29 |
| Underdog | 44–31 | 24–20 |
| Overs–unders | 44–47–1 | 48–41 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 8–13 NYM in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 21.