Washington Nationals at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Keibert RuizBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jake IrvinPitching6.0 IP, 6 ER, 2 K
Mets- Francisco LindorBatting3-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Jose QuintanaPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Young scored on Díaz wild pitch.5–7
- 9Young scored on Díaz wild pitch.5–7
- 9Ruiz homered to right (418 feet), Yepez scored.4–7
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–7
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–7
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 32–7
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking2–7
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 22–7
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 12–7
- 8McNeil doubled to right, Taylor scored.2–7
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–7
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 22–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–6
- 8Vargas homered to right (388 feet), L. García Jr. scored.2–6
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–6
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 30–6
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul0–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 20–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 10–6
- 6Lindor homered to right center (391 feet), Bader scored.0–6
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–6
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging0–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 20–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 10–4
- 2Nimmo homered to left (363 feet), Bader scored and Lindor scored.0–4
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–4
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 2Lindor singled to left, McNeil scored, Bader to second.0–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 56%
- ML WSH +120 / NYM -140
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.4 pts
- NYM: Elo 55.8%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- NYM -128
- WSH +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 4.0 – 4.5 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1475 | 1499 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +19 | +16 | WSH: Jake Irvin: team allows 0.93 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYM: Jose Quintana: team allows 0.82 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +40 Elo | NYM 55.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 55.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 55.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 56.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| WSH | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.89th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.825th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.3 | Margin | 0.017th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 18th of 3022–25 | Road vs home | 21–2421st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 52–39 | 39–49 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 8–9 | 15–29 |
| Underdog | 44–30 | 24–20 |
| Overs–unders | 43–47–1 | 47–41 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 8–12 NYM in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 20.