Colorado Rockies at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Brenton DoyleBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Peter LambertPitching3.2 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Mets- Harrison BaderBatting2-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Sean ManaeaPitching7.0 IP, 3 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 8Doyle homered to left (422 feet), Tovar scored.6–7
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–7
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 34–7
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking4–7
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 24–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 14–7
- 8Blackmon homered to right (389 feet).4–7
- 8Pitch 8 : Ball In Play4–7
- 8Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul3–7
- 8Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul3–7
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 33–7
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking3–7
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking3–7
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 23–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–7
- 7Rodgers homered to left center (400 feet).3–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–7
- 5Iglesias homered to left center (399 feet).2–7
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–7
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 12–6
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking2–6
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–6
- 4Bader homered to left (406 feet), McNeil scored.2–6
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–6
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–4
- 3Vientos doubled to left, Alvarez scored.2–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–3
- 2Bader homered to left center (399 feet).2–3
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–3
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging2–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 22–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 2Iglesias homered to left (389 feet).2–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 2Vientos homered to center (408 feet).2–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.6% of 209 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 71%
- ML COL +235 / NYM -290
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.1 pts
- NYM: Elo 66.2%, market 71.4%
- Fair odds
- NYM -249
- COL +249 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.2 – 5.3 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1415 | 1505 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | +9 | COL: Tanner Gordon: team allows 0.01 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · NYM: Sean Manaea: team allows 0.44 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +117 Elo | NYM 66.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 65.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 65.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 71.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| COL | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.87th of 30 |
| 30th of 305.9 | Runs allowed | 4.723rd of 30 |
| 30th of 30−1.8 | Margin | +0.115th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 29th of 3013–34 | Road vs home | 24–2417th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 43–48 | 42–49 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 1–5 | 18–29 |
| Underdog | 42–42 | 24–20 |
| Overs–unders | 50–41 | 48–43 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 4–2 NYM in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.