Colorado Rockies at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Ryan McMahonBatting2-4
- Ryan FeltnerPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Reds- Rece HindsBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Andrew AbbottPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 8Espinal singled to center, Candelario scored, Stephenson to second.0–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–6
- 8Candelario grounded into fielder's choice to pitcher, De La Cruz scored.0–5
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging0–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 20–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 10–4
- 8De La Cruz doubled to right, Benson scored.0–4
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging0–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 20–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 8Hinds homered to left center (449 feet).0–3
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 10–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–2
- 4Candelario scored on throwing error by catcher Díaz.0–2
- 4Candelario to home on throwing error by catcher Díaz.0–2
- 4Stephenson grounded into double play, shortstop to first, De La Cruz scored, Steer out at second, Candelario to third.0–1
- 4Pitch 7 : Ball In Play0–1
- 4Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball 30–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 20–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Reds 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CIN 60%
- ML COL +140 / CIN -165
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- +7.2 pts
- CIN: Elo 67.1%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- CIN -149
- COL +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 4.3 – 5.2 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1420 | 1496 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −12 | +18 | COL: Ryan Feltner: team allows 0.59 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · CIN: Andrew Abbott: team allows 0.88 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +124 Elo | CIN 67.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 56.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 58.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CIN 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| COL | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.217th of 30 |
| 30th of 305.8 | Runs allowed | 4.110th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.7 | Margin | +0.213th of 30 |
| 9th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–59th of 30 |
| 28th of 3012–31 | Road vs home | 20–2627th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 42–45 | 48–42 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 1–5 | 18–25 |
| Underdog | 41–39 | 30–17 |
| Overs–unders | 47–40 | 40–49–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 2–7 CIN in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 9.