Colorado Rockies at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Sam HilliardBatting2-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Kyle FreelandPitching6.2 IP, 2 ER, 9 K
Reds- Jonathan IndiaBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Frankie MontasPitching7.0 IP, 5 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9India hit sacrifice fly to right, Marte scored.6–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 16–4
- 9Espinal singled to center, Wynns scored, Espinal to second, Marte to third.6–4
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul6–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 26–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 16–3
- 9Stephenson homered to left center (398 feet).6–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 16–2
- 8Doyle singled to left, McMahon scored, Díaz to second.6–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–2
- 7Hinds singled to right, Marte scored.5–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–1
- 6Cave doubled to right, Doyle scored.5–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–1
- 5Hilliard homered to left center (382 feet).4–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–1
- 3India homered to center (415 feet).3–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 23–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 3Díaz singled to left, Tovar scored.3–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 22–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 3Hilliard homered to right (344 feet), Jones scored.2–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Reds 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- CIN 63%
- ML COL +160 / CIN -190
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.4 pts
- CIN: Elo 63.4%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- CIN -170
- COL +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 4.2 – 5.3 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1416 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | 0 | COL: Kyle Freeland: team allows 0.36 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CIN: Frankie Montas: team allows 0.01 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +95 Elo | CIN 63.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 63.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 63.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CIN 63.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| COL | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.316th of 30 |
| 30th of 305.9 | Runs allowed | 4.110th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−1.8 | Margin | +0.312th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 28th of 3012–33 | Road vs home | 22–2625th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 42–47 | 50–42 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 1–5 | 20–25 |
| Underdog | 41–41 | 30–17 |
| Overs–unders | 48–41 | 41–50–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 2–9 CIN in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 11.