Colorado Rockies at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Brenton DoyleBatting3-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Peter LambertPitching3.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Reds- Tyler StephensonBatting3-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Nick LodoloPitching3.2 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Marte hit sacrifice fly to center, Stephenson scored.6–12
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–12
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 26–11
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 16–11
- 8Tovar hit sacrifice fly to left, Stallings scored, Goodman to second, Jones to third.6–11
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–11
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging5–11
- 8Doyle homered to left center (442 feet).5–11
- 8Pitch 7 : Ball In Play5–11
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball 34–11
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 24–11
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–11
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 14–11
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging4–11
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–11
- 7Steer homered to left (384 feet), Benson scored.4–11
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–11
- 7Benson doubled to right, Espinal scored on throwing error by right fielder Goodman.4–9
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–9
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul4–8
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 14–8
- 7Hinds homered to left (458 feet).4–8
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–8
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 14–7
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking4–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–7
- 5Hinds tripled to right, Stephenson scored.4–7
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–7
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–6
- 5Stephenson doubled to left, Candelario scored.4–6
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–6
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 14–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–5
- 4Goodman doubled to left, Jones scored.4–5
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–5
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–5
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 13–5
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–5
- 4Toglia homered to right center (376 feet), Stallings scored.3–5
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–5
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Reds 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- CIN 64%
- ML COL +165 / CIN -200
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.1 pts
- CIN: Elo 64.0%, market 63.9%
- Fair odds
- CIN -177
- COL +177 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.6 – 4.9 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1418 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | +11 | COL: Cal Quantrill: team allows 0.46 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CIN: Nick Lodolo: team allows 0.53 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +100 Elo | CIN 64.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 63.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 63.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CIN 63.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| COL | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.317th of 30 |
| 30th of 305.8 | Runs allowed | 4.010th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.7 | Margin | +0.213th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 28th of 3012–32 | Road vs home | 21–2626th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 42–46 | 49–42 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 1–5 | 19–25 |
| Underdog | 41–40 | 30–17 |
| Overs–unders | 47–41 | 40–50–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 2–8 CIN in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 10.