Washington Nationals at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Lane ThomasBatting2-2
- MacKenzie GorePitching4.2 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Mets- Brandon NimmoBatting1-4, 3 RBI
- David PetersonPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Bader singled to left, Alonso scored, Vientos to second.0–7
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–6
- 8Vientos singled to center, Martinez scored, Alonso to third.0–6
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 20–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 10–5
- 5Alonso singled to left, Martinez scored, Alonso out stretching at second.0–5
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–5
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–4
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul0–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 20–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–4
- 5Martinez singled to left, Nimmo scored, Martinez to second.0–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–4
- 5Nimmo doubled to center, Lindor scored, Torrens scored and McNeil scored.0–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 55%
- ML WSH +115 / NYM -135
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.8 pts
- NYM: Elo 58.1%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- NYM -124
- WSH +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 4.0 – 4.5 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1471 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | 0 | WSH: MacKenzie Gore: team allows 0.34 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYM: David Peterson: team allows 0.02 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +57 Elo | NYM 58.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 53.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 54.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| WSH | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.89th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.824th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.3 | Margin | 0.017th of 30 |
| 26th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 20th of 3022–27 | Road vs home | 23–2418th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 52–41 | 41–49 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 8–9 | 17–29 |
| Underdog | 44–32 | 24–20 |
| Overs–unders | 44–48–1 | 48–42 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 8–14 NYM in their last 22 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 22.