Colorado Rockies at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Michael TogliaBatting1-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Austin GomberPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Reds- Tyler StephensonBatting2-5, 2 HR, 5 RBI
- Hunter GreenePitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 7Stephenson homered to left (374 feet), Candelario scored.1–8
- 7Pitch 7 : Ball In Play1–8
- 7Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul1–6
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 31–6
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 21–6
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 11–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–6
- 7Candelario doubled to right, Steer scored and India scored.1–6
- 7Pitch 7 : Ball In Play1–6
- 7Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul1–4
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–4
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Swinging1–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 31–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 21–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 11–4
- 5Toglia homered to right (407 feet).1–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–4
- 4Espinal homered to left center (420 feet).0–4
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 20–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 3Stephenson homered to right (338 feet), India scored and Steer scored.0–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Reds 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- CIN 64%
- ML COL +165 / CIN -195
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.4 pts
- CIN: Elo 64.1%, market 63.7%
- Fair odds
- CIN -175
- COL +175 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.6 – 4.9 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1417 | 1499 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | −1 | COL: Austin Gomber: team allows 0.10 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CIN: Hunter Greene: team allows 0.05 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +101 Elo | CIN 64.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 64.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 64.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CIN 63.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| COL | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.415th of 30 |
| 30th of 305.9 | Runs allowed | 4.110th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.7 | Margin | +0.312th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 28th of 3013–33 | Road vs home | 22–2726th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 43–47 | 50–43 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 1–5 | 20–26 |
| Underdog | 42–41 | 30–17 |
| Overs–unders | 49–41 | 42–50–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 3–9 CIN in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 12.