Minnesota Twins at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Byron BuxtonBatting2-4
- Joe RyanPitching5.1 IP, 5 ER, 6 K
Giants- Brett WiselyBatting3-3, 2 RBI
- Kyle HarrisonPitching5.1 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 7Conforto doubled to left, Chapman scored and Ramos scored.1–7
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–7
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking1–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–5
- 6Wisely hit a ground rule double, Chapman scored, Conforto to third.1–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–5
- 6Castro grounded out to first, Correa scored, Santana to third.1–4
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking0–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 10–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–4
- 5Soler singled to left, Wisely scored.0–4
- 5Pitch 7 : Ball In Play0–4
- 5Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 20–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 2Wisely singled to center, Yastrzemski scored.0–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–3
- 2Yastrzemski doubled to left, Estrada scored.0–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 1Wade Jr. hit sacrifice fly to left, Soler scored.0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 53%
- ML MIN -125 / SF +105
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.1 pts
- MIN: Elo 55.3%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- MIN -114
- SF +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 3.9 – 3.6 SF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1531 | 1486 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | 0 | MIN: Joe Ryan: team allows 0.47 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SF: Kyle Harrison: team allows 0.00 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +37 Elo | MIN 55.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 56.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 56.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIN | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.415th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.824th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.6 | Margin | −0.321st of 30 |
| 1st of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 6th of 3026–22 | Road vs home | 26–2112th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 43–50 | 47–46 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 26–38 | 17–26 |
| Underdog | 17–12 | 30–20 |
| Overs–unders | 46–47 | 52–40–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 1–2 SF in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.