Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Matt WallnerBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Bailey OberPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
White Sox- Luis Robert Jr.Batting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Erick FeddePitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7Wallner homered to right center (378 feet).1–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–3
- 6Robert Jr. homered to center (416 feet), Vaughn scored.0–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–3
- 5DeJong hit sacrifice fly to left, Sheets scored.0–1
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 59%
- ML MIN -165 / CHW +135
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.6 pts
- MIN: Elo 64.0%, market 59.4%
- Fair odds
- MIN -146
- CHW +146 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 4.7 – 3.8 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1533 | 1411 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | +5 | MIN: Bailey Ober: team allows 0.08 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHW: Erick Fedde: team allows 0.26 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +100 Elo | MIN 64.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 61.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 62.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 59.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIN | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.0 | Runs scored | 3.230th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 5.029th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.6 | Margin | −1.830th of 30 |
| 1st of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–622nd of 30 |
| 7th of 3025–21 | Road vs home | 16–3030th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 43–48 | 45–48 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 26–36 | 6–2 |
| Underdog | 17–12 | 39–46 |
| Overs–unders | 46–45 | 44–48–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 17–4 CHW in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 17 of 21.