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Houston Astros at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast

Final

Away

Astros

46-43

3–9

at

Home

Twins

50-39

HOU 45%MIN 55%

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Target Field

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.

MIN75%50%75%HOUStart1234567Final

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Astros
  • Jon SingletonBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
  • Hunter BrownPitching6.0 IP, 7 ER, 6 K
Twins
  • Byron BuxtonBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
  • Joe RyanPitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 8 K

Scoring summary

  • 7Buxton homered to left (367 feet), Kepler scored.3–9
  • 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–9
  • 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–7
  • 4Singleton homered to right center (406 feet), Diaz scored.3–7
  • 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–7
  • 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–7
  • 3Lee homered to right center (395 feet), Buxton scored.1–7
  • 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–7
  • 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–5
  • 3Bregman doubled to right, Dubón scored.1–5
  • 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–5
  • 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–5
  • 3Pitch 4 : Ball 20–5
  • 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking0–5
  • 3Pitch 2 : Ball 10–5
  • 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–5
  • 2Santana singled to center, Larnach scored, Miranda to second.0–5
  • 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–5
  • 2Pitch 2 : Ball 20–4
  • 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–4
  • 2Miranda singled to center, Castro scored, Larnach to second.0–4
  • 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–4
  • 2Castro doubled to right, Jeffers scored.0–3
  • 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–3
  • 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
  • 1Kepler hit sacrifice fly to center, Correa scored.0–2
  • 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–2
  • 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
  • 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
  • 1Larnach singled to left, Castro scored, Correa to second.0–1
  • 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–1
  • 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
  • 1Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
  • 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
  • 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Twins 55%

LeanHit
HOU 45%MIN 55%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.

Market
MIN 55%
ML HOU +115 / MIN -135
Pre-line forecast
MIN 54%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
MIN 52%
Ratings vs. market
−3.1 pts
MIN: Elo 52.1%, market 55.3%
Fair odds
MIN -124
HOU +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
HOU 3.5 – 4.0 MIN
Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorHOUMINWhy
Team rating15351528Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+18Worth 18 Elo in MLB
Starting pitchers+4+8HOU: Hunter Brown: team allows 0.19 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIN: Joe Ryan: team allows 0.40 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsMIN +15 EloMIN 52.1%
Market-implied ratingsMIN 54.3%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastMIN 53.9%15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastMIN 55.3%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.

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Houston Astros and Minnesota Twins compared, with each team's league rank
HOUStatMIN
9th of 304.8Runs scored4.96th of 30
13th of 304.3Runs allowed4.420th of 30
9th of 30+0.5Margin+0.59th of 30
1st of 308–2Last 106–45th of 30
18th of 3020–23Road vs home25–189th of 30

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

AstrosTwins
14001450150015501600league averageAprJulOctJanAprJul

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonHOUMIN
Run line44–4142–46
Last 109–17–3
Favorite28–3325–34
Underdog16–817–12
Overs–unders35–47–344–44
Overs–unders, last 106–48–2

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

HOU 7–7 MIN in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 14.