Houston Astros at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Yordan AlvarezBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Spencer ArrighettiPitching4.0 IP, 6 ER, 5 K
Blue Jays- George SpringerBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Jose BerriosPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 8Meyers grounded out to second, Alvarez scored.6–7
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–7
- 5Alvarez homered to right (388 feet), Salazar scored and Altuve scored.5–7
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–7
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 32–7
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 22–7
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–7
- 5Altuve singled to left, Peña scored, Salazar to second.2–7
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–7
- 5Salazar singled to right, Singleton scored, Peña to third.1–7
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–7
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–7
- 4Kirk scored, Barger to third on passed ball by Salazar.0–7
- 4Kirk scored, Barger to third on passed ball by Salazar.0–7
- 4Barger doubled to center, Clement scored, Kirk to third.0–6
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–6
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 30–5
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 20–5
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–5
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–5
- 3Springer homered to left (379 feet), Guerrero Jr. scored and Turner scored.0–5
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–5
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 3Horwitz homered to right (377 feet).0–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 10–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 1Turner singled to left, Guerrero Jr. scored.0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 51%
- ML HOU -105 / TOR -115
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.1 pts
- TOR: Elo 50.0%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- TOR -104
- HOU +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 4.2 – 4.3 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1531 | 1496 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | +9 | HOU: Spencer Arrighetti: team allows 0.37 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · TOR: Jose Berrios: team allows 0.47 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU 0 Elo | HOU 50.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 50.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 50.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| HOU | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.025th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.621st of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.4 | Margin | −0.624th of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 21st of 3017–22 | Road vs home | 20–2219th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 40–41 | 40–44 |
| Last 10 | 9–1 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 27–33 | 21–26 |
| Underdog | 13–8 | 19–18 |
| Overs–unders | 32–46–3 | 41–42–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 6–5 TOR in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 11.