Houston Astros at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Yordan AlvarezBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Hunter BrownPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Blue Jays- Ernie ClementBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Yariel RodriguezPitching6.2 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Clement homered to left center (404 feet).3–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–0
- 9Alvarez homered to center (397 feet), Bregman scored.3–0
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–0
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 5Peña homered to left (382 feet).1–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 54%
- ML HOU -130 / TOR +110
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.1 pts
- HOU: Elo 51.1%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- HOU -119
- TOR +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 4.4 – 4.1 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1530 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | +6 | HOU: Hunter Brown: team allows 0.03 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TOR: Yariel Rodriguez: team allows 0.32 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +8 Elo | HOU 51.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 53.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 53.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| HOU | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.023rd of 30 |
| 12th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.621st of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.4 | Margin | −0.624th of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3016–22 | Road vs home | 20–2118th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 39–41 | 40–43 |
| Last 10 | 9–1 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 26–33 | 21–26 |
| Underdog | 13–8 | 19–17 |
| Overs–unders | 32–45–3 | 41–41–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 5–5 TOR in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 10.