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Houston Astros at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast

FinalESPN+

Away

Astros

46-42

13–12

at

Home

Twins

49-39

HOU 45%MIN 55%

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Target Field · ESPN+

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.

MIN75%50%75%HOUStart12345678Final

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Astros
  • Alex BregmanBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
  • Shawn DubinPitching2.2 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Twins
  • Jose MirandaBatting4-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
  • Pablo LopezPitching5.0 IP, 6 ER, 6 K

Scoring summary

  • 9Correa homered to left (364 feet), Lee scored, Vázquez scored and Castro scored.13–12
  • 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play13–12
  • 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking13–8
  • 9Pitch 1 : Ball 113–8
  • 9Vázquez hit a ground rule double, Buxton scored, Lee to third.13–8
  • 9Pitch 9 : Ball In Play13–8
  • 9Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul13–7
  • 9Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul13–7
  • 9Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul13–7
  • 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul13–7
  • 9Pitch 4 : Ball 213–7
  • 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking13–7
  • 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul13–7
  • 9Pitch 1 : Ball 113–7
  • 9Lee singled to right, Kepler scored, Buxton to second.13–7
  • 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play13–7
  • 9Pitch 1 : Ball 113–6
  • 9Buxton singled to left, Martin scored, Kepler to second.13–6
  • 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play13–6
  • 9Pitch 3 : Ball 213–5
  • 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging13–5
  • 9Pitch 1 : Ball 113–5
  • 9Bregman homered to left (404 feet), Salazar scored and Dubón scored.13–5
  • 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play13–5
  • 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul10–5
  • 9Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul10–5
  • 9Pitch 2 : Ball 210–5
  • 9Pitch 1 : Ball 110–5
  • 8Meyers hit sacrifice fly to center, Diaz scored, Singleton to third.10–5
  • 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play10–5
  • 8Pitch 4 : Ball 29–5
  • 8Pitch 3 : Ball 19–5
  • 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul10–5
  • 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking10–5
  • 8Peña hit sacrifice fly, Alvarez scored, Peña to first on fielding error by left fielder Margot, Singleton to second, Diaz to third.9–5
  • 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play9–5
  • 8Alvarez singled to left, Dubón scored, Bregman to second.8–5
  • 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play8–5
  • 7Kepler singled to right, Miranda scored, Santana to third.7–5
  • 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–5

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Twins 55%

LeanMiss
HOU 45%MIN 55%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.

Market
MIN 55%
ML HOU +115 / MIN -135
Pre-line forecast
MIN 56%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
MIN 53%
Ratings vs. market
−2.7 pts
MIN: Elo 52.5%, market 55.3%
Fair odds
MIN -124
HOU +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
HOU 3.5 – 4.0 MIN
Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorHOUMINWhy
Team rating15341529Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+18Worth 18 Elo in MLB
Starting pitchers−4+1HOU: Shawn Dubin: team allows 0.20 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · MIN: Pablo Lopez: team allows 0.04 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsMIN +18 EloMIN 52.5%
Market-implied ratingsMIN 56.1%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastMIN 55.5%15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastMIN 55.3%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.

Try another venue →
Houston Astros and Minnesota Twins compared, with each team's league rank
HOUStatMIN
10th of 304.7Runs scored4.96th of 30
12th of 304.2Runs allowed4.315th of 30
10th of 30+0.5Margin+0.59th of 30
1st of 308–2Last 107–32nd of 30
18th of 3019–23Road vs home25–179th of 30

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

AstrosTwins
14001450150015501600league averageAprJulOctJanAprJul

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonHOUMIN
Run line43–4142–45
Last 109–18–2
Favorite28–3325–33
Underdog15–817–12
Overs–unders34–47–343–44
Overs–unders, last 106–47–3

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

HOU 6–7 MIN in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 13.