Houston Astros at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Jeremy PenaBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Framber ValdezPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Blue Jays- Spencer HorwitzBatting3-4, 2 RBI
- Chris BassittPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 7Peña homered to left (380 feet).5–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 14–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–3
- 5Dubón singled to center, Peña scored, Dubón to second.4–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 13–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–3
- 1Kirk doubled to left, Schneider scored, Horwitz to third.3–3
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–3
- 1Horwitz singled to center, Jansen scored and Springer scored, Schneider to third.3–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–2
- 1Singleton singled to center, Bregman scored and Alvarez scored.3–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 31–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 21–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1Diaz grounded out to first, Altuve scored, Alvarez to second, Bregman to third.1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 51%
- ML HOU -115 / TOR -105
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.1 pts
- HOU: Elo 53.1%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- HOU -104
- TOR +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 4.3 – 4.2 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1533 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | +2 | HOU: Framber Valdez: team allows 0.21 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TOR: Chris Bassitt: team allows 0.12 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +22 Elo | HOU 53.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 53.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 53.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| HOU | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.023rd of 30 |
| 12th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.722nd of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.5 | Margin | −0.625th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 5–516th of 30 |
| 20th of 3018–23 | Road vs home | 21–2319th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 42–41 | 40–46 |
| Last 10 | 9–1 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 28–33 | 21–27 |
| Underdog | 14–8 | 19–19 |
| Overs–unders | 34–46–3 | 43–42–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 7–6 TOR in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 13.