Houston Astros at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Yordan AlvarezBatting3-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Ronel BlancoPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Blue Jays- Daulton VarshoBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Yusei KikuchiPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Meyers grounded into fielder's choice to third, Alvarez scored, Diaz out at second.9–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play9–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul8–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging8–2
- 8Diaz singled to center, Bregman scored, Alvarez to third.8–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play8–2
- 8Alvarez doubled to right, Singleton scored, Bregman to third.7–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking6–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul6–2
- 7Peña hit by pitch, Alvarez scored, Meyers to second, Diaz to third.6–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–2
- 7Diaz singled to right, Altuve scored and Singleton scored, Alvarez to third.5–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–2
- 7Altuve singled to right, McCormick scored, Singleton to third.3–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–2
- 6Varsho singled to right, Bichette scored, Varsho thrown out at second.2–2
- 6Pitch 7 : Ball In Play2–2
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball 32–1
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 22–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 12–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging2–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 6Alvarez homered to right (395 feet).2–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–1
- 3Alvarez doubled to center, McCormick scored, Bregman to third.1–1
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking0–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 20–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 1Bichette hit sacrifice fly to center, Springer scored.0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 52%
- ML HOU -120 / TOR +100
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.4 pts
- HOU: Elo 57.5%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- HOU -109
- TOR +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 4.3 – 4.2 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1530 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | −28 | HOU: Ronel Blanco: team allows 0.52 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · TOR: Yusei Kikuchi: team allows 1.38 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +53 Elo | HOU 57.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 53.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 52.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| HOU | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.023rd of 30 |
| 12th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.621st of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.4 | Margin | −0.624th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3017–23 | Road vs home | 21–2218th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 41–41 | 40–45 |
| Last 10 | 9–1 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 27–33 | 21–27 |
| Underdog | 14–8 | 19–18 |
| Overs–unders | 33–46–3 | 42–42–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 6–6 TOR in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 12.