Chicago White Sox at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Danny MendickBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jonathan CannonPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Marlins- Jake BurgerBatting1-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Edward CabreraPitching3.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Burger homered to left center (431 feet), Rivera scored and J. Sánchez scored.4–7
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–7
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 14–7
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–7
- 9Bell doubled to left, Bruján scored.4–4
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–4
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul4–4
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking4–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 34–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 24–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 14–4
- 7Bell grounded out to shortstop, Fortes scored.4–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–3
- 7Fortes doubled to left, Bruján scored.4–2
- 7Pitch 9 : Ball In Play4–2
- 7Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul4–2
- 7Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul4–2
- 7Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul4–2
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking4–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 34–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 24–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 14–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–2
- 6Vaughn hit sacrifice fly to left, Lee scored.4–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 14–1
- 6Lee doubled to right, Mendick scored on error, Lee safe at third on fielding error by right fielder Myers.3–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 4Bruján doubled to right, Myers scored, Gordon to third.2–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 22–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 4Mendick homered to left (401 feet), Sosa scored.2–0
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 22–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 12–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Marlins 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIA 57%
- ML CHW +125 / MIA -150
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.1 pts
- MIA: Elo 57.4%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- MIA -135
- CHW +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 3.4 – 4.1 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1414 | 1445 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | +3 | CHW: Jonathan Cannon: team allows 0.01 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · MIA: Edward Cabrera: team allows 0.13 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +52 Elo | MIA 57.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 57.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 57.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHW | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.2 | Runs scored | 3.529th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 5.029th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−1.8 | Margin | −1.528th of 30 |
| 8th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–729th of 30 |
| 30th of 3010–36 | Road vs home | 17–3130th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 44–47 | 37–52 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 6–2 | 1–19 |
| Underdog | 38–45 | 36–33 |
| Overs–unders | 42–48–1 | 47–41–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 2–3 MIA in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 5.