Chicago White Sox at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Nicky LopezBatting2-3, 2 RBI
- Drew ThorpePitching6.1 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Marlins- Jazz Chisholm Jr.Batting2-4
- Roddery MunozPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9De La Cruz singled to left, Bruján scored, Chisholm Jr. to second.3–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–2
- 7Edwards singled to left, Myers scored, Edwards to second.3–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 5Lopez hit a ground rule double, Jiménez scored, DeJong to third.3–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–0
- 4Maldonado doubled to left, Lopez scored.2–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 12–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
- 2Lopez doubled to right, DeJong scored.1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Marlins 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIA 56%
- ML CHW +120 / MIA -140
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.4 pts
- MIA: Elo 54.9%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- MIA -128
- CHW +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 3.5 – 4.0 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1414 | 1445 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | −12 | CHW: Drew Thorpe: team allows 0.18 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · MIA: Bryan Hoeing: team allows 0.61 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +34 Elo | MIA 54.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 54.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 54.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 56.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHW | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.2 | Runs scored | 3.529th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 5.129th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−1.8 | Margin | −1.628th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 30th of 309–35 | Road vs home | 16–3030th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 43–46 | 36–51 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 6–1 | 1–18 |
| Underdog | 37–45 | 35–33 |
| Overs–unders | 41–47–1 | 46–40–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 1–2 MIA in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.