Chicago White Sox at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Andrew BenintendiBatting2-3
- Garrett CrochetPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Marlins- Dane MyersBatting3-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Yonny ChirinosPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7Myers homered to center (420 feet), Burger scored.3–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 13–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–4
- 4Bruján singled to center, Edwards scored, A. Sánchez to second.3–2
- 4Pitch 7 : Ball In Play3–2
- 4Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball 23–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 13–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 3Myers singled to right, Bruján scored, De La Cruz to second.3–1
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 3Vaughn doubled to left, Sheets scored.3–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–0
- 3Sheets doubled to right, Benintendi scored.2–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1Robert Jr. grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Pham scored, Benintendi out at second.1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
White Sox 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CHW 58%
- ML CHW -155 / MIA +130
- Pre-line forecast
- CHW 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHW 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −12.2 pts
- CHW: Elo 46.1%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- CHW -140
- MIA +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 3.6 – 2.9 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1415 | 1444 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +20 | 0 | CHW: Garrett Crochet: team allows 1.02 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · MIA: Yonny Chirinos: team allows 0.01 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +27 Elo | MIA 53.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHW 54.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHW 53.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHW 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHW | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.2 | Runs scored | 3.529th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 5.029th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−1.8 | Margin | −1.628th of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–729th of 30 |
| 30th of 3010–35 | Road vs home | 16–3130th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 44–46 | 36–52 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 6–1 | 1–19 |
| Underdog | 38–45 | 35–33 |
| Overs–unders | 41–48–1 | 46–41–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 2–2 MIA in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.