Skip to content
ShadowCryptsPredictions
Live
MLB games
Updated

Houston Astros at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast

Final

Away

Astros

46-44

2–3

at

Home

Twins

51-39

HOU 43%MIN 57%

You didn't pick this one.

Target Field

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.

MIN75%50%75%HOUStart12345678Final

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Astros
  • Jose AltuveBatting1-4, 1 RBI
  • Spencer ArrighettiPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Twins
  • Christian VazquezBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
  • Simeon Woods RichardsonPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K

Scoring summary

  • 9Vázquez homered to left (362 feet).2–3
  • 9Pitch 7 : Ball In Play2–3
  • 9Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
  • 9Pitch 5 : Ball 32–2
  • 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking2–2
  • 9Pitch 3 : Ball 22–2
  • 9Pitch 2 : Ball 12–2
  • 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–2
  • 4Vázquez grounded into fielder's choice to third, Lee scored, Vázquez thrown out at second, Wallner out at second.2–2
  • 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–2
  • 2Vázquez singled to left, Buxton scored, Wallner to third.2–1
  • 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–1
  • 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
  • 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
  • 2Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
  • 2Altuve singled to left, Meyers scored, McCormick to second.2–0
  • 2Pitch 7 : Ball In Play2–0
  • 2Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
  • 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking1–0
  • 2Pitch 4 : Ball 31–0
  • 2Pitch 3 : Ball 21–0
  • 2Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
  • 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
  • 2Salazar hit sacrifice fly to left, Singleton scored.1–0
  • 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–0
  • 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
  • 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
  • 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
  • 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Twins 57%

LeanHit
HOU 43%MIN 57%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.

Market
MIN 57%
ML HOU +120 / MIN -145
Pre-line forecast
MIN 52%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
MIN 55%
Ratings vs. market
−2.0 pts
MIN: Elo 54.5%, market 56.6%
Fair odds
MIN -130
HOU +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
HOU 4.0 – 4.5 MIN
Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorHOUMINWhy
Team rating15331531Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+18Worth 18 Elo in MLB
Starting pitchers−11+4HOU: Spencer Arrighetti: team allows 0.57 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · MIN: Simeon Woods Richardson: team allows 0.20 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsMIN +32 EloMIN 54.5%
Market-implied ratingsMIN 51.8%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastMIN 52.2%15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastMIN 56.6%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.

Try another venue →
Houston Astros and Minnesota Twins compared, with each team's league rank
HOUStatMIN
9th of 304.8Runs scored5.04th of 30
15th of 304.4Runs allowed4.419th of 30
10th of 30+0.4Margin+0.68th of 30
1st of 307–3Last 107–31st of 30
19th of 3020–24Road vs home26–189th of 30

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

AstrosTwins
14001450150015501600league averageAprJulOctJanAprJul

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonHOUMIN
Run line44–4243–46
Last 108–28–2
Favorite28–3326–34
Underdog16–917–12
Overs–unders36–47–345–44
Overs–unders, last 107–38–2

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

HOU 7–8 MIN in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 15.