Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Matt WallnerBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Chris PaddackPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
White Sox- Martin MaldonadoBatting1-1, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Chris FlexenPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 11Margot grounded out to third, Buxton scored, Lee to second.8–6
- 11Pitch 3 : Ball In Play8–6
- 11Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging7–6
- 11Pitch 1 : Ball 17–6
- 11Lee singled to center, Kepler scored, Buxton to third.7–6
- 11Pitch 4 : Ball In Play7–6
- 11Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking6–6
- 11Pitch 2 : Ball 16–6
- 11Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–6
- 8Lopez doubled to left, Robert Jr. scored.6–6
- 8Pitch 7 : Ball In Play6–6
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball 36–5
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 26–5
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul6–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging6–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking6–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 16–5
- 7Correa homered to left (357 feet).6–5
- 7Pitch 7 : Ball In Play6–5
- 7Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul5–5
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 35–5
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 25–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 15–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging5–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–5
- 7Wallner homered to right (389 feet), Lee scored.5–5
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 23–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 13–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–5
- 7Lee singled to right, Buxton scored.3–5
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 12–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–5
- 6Jiménez scored on fielding error by second baseman Castro, Lopez stole second, Lopez safe at third on throwing error by second baseman Castro.2–5
- 6Jiménez scored on fielding error by second baseman Castro, Lopez stole second, Lopez safe at third on throwing error by second baseman Castro.2–5
- 6Lopez singled to right, Vaughn scored, Jiménez to third.2–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 66%
- ML MIN -215 / CHW +180
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.1 pts
- MIN: Elo 65.5%, market 65.6%
- Fair odds
- MIN -191
- CHW +191 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 5.5 – 4.0 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1532 | 1412 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | −17 | MIN: Chris Paddack: team allows 0.33 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · CHW: Chris Flexen: team allows 0.83 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +111 Elo | MIN 65.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 64.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 64.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 65.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIN | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 3.230th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 5.028th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.6 | Margin | −1.830th of 30 |
| 1st of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–59th of 30 |
| 7th of 3024–21 | Road vs home | 16–2930th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 43–47 | 44–48 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 26–35 | 6–2 |
| Underdog | 17–12 | 38–46 |
| Overs–unders | 45–45 | 43–48–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 16–4 CHW in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 16 of 20.