Toronto Blue Jays at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Ernie ClementBatting3-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Chris BassittPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Giants- Patrick BaileyBatting2-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Logan WebbPitching5.0 IP, 7 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Chapman homered to left (389 feet).10–6
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play10–6
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking10–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking10–5
- 9Bailey homered to center (406 feet).10–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play10–5
- 8Springer doubled to center, Clement scored.10–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play10–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking9–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging9–4
- 6Ramos reached on infield single to third, Casali scored, Wade Jr. to second.9–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play9–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 19–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging9–3
- 6Springer doubled to center, Kiermaier scored and Kirk scored.9–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play9–3
- 6Clement singled to right, Schneider scored, Kirk to second.7–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 16–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–3
- 6Kirk singled to right, Jimenez scored, Schneider to second.6–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 15–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–3
- 6Schneider singled to center, Turner scored, Jimenez to third.5–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–3
- 6Turner singled to center, Guerrero Jr. scored.4–3
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Foul3–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 33–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 23–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 13–3
- 5Conforto doubled to right, Bailey scored.3–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–2
- 5Clement homered to left center (385 feet), Schneider scored and Kirk scored.3–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 10–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Giants 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SF 59%
- ML TOR +135 / SF -155
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.7 pts
- SF: Elo 53.1%, market 58.8%
- Fair odds
- SF -143
- TOR +143 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 3.4 – 4.1 SF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1494 | 1490 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | +10 | TOR: Chris Bassitt: team allows 0.14 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SF: Logan Webb: team allows 0.52 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +22 Elo | SF 53.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 57.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 57.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SF 58.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TOR | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.414th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.723rd of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.6 | Margin | −0.321st of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 20th of 3021–26 | Road vs home | 26–1910th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 44–47 | 47–44 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 21–28 | 17–24 |
| Underdog | 23–19 | 30–20 |
| Overs–unders | 45–45–1 | 50–40–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 2–2 SF in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.