Toronto Blue Jays at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Alejandro KirkBatting3-4, 2 RBI
- Yariel RodriguezPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Mariners- Mitch HanigerBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Emerson HancockPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Raley homered to right (379 feet).5–4
- 9Pitch 9 : Ball In Play5–4
- 9Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul5–3
- 9Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul5–3
- 9Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul5–3
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball 35–3
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 25–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul5–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 15–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–3
- 8Haniger homered to left center (407 feet), Garver scored and Canzone scored.5–3
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 35–0
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul5–0
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 25–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 15–0
- 8Springer scored on error, Bichette safe at first on fielding error by shortstop Crawford, Schneider to second.5–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–0
- 8Guerrero Jr. hit sacrifice fly to right, Kiermaier scored, Springer to third.4–0
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–0
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 7Kirk hit sacrifice fly to right, Guerrero Jr. scored.3–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–0
- 5Guerrero Jr. singled to left, Springer scored, Horwitz to second.2–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 11–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 4Kirk doubled to left, Varsho scored.1–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 51%
- ML TOR -115 / SEA -105
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.0 pts
- TOR: Elo 46.1%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- TOR -104
- SEA +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 4.3 – 4.2 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1492 | 1518 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | −8 | TOR: Yariel Rodriguez: team allows 0.45 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · SEA: Emerson Hancock: team allows 0.39 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +27 Elo | SEA 53.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 52.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 52.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TOR | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 3.827th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 3.73rd of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.7 | Margin | +0.114th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 20th of 3019–25 | Road vs home | 30–164th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 41–47 | 38–51 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 21–28 | 21–36 |
| Underdog | 20–19 | 17–15 |
| Overs–unders | 43–44–1 | 35–52–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 5–5 SEA in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 10.