Toronto Blue Jays at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- George SpringerBatting1-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Jose BerriosPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 10 K
Mariners- Mitch GarverBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- George KirbyPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 10Varsho singled to right, Guerrero Jr. scored, Varsho to second.5–4
- 10Pitch 7 : Ball In Play5–4
- 10Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul4–4
- 10Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul4–4
- 10Pitch 4 : Ball 34–4
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball 24–4
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball 14–4
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–4
- 7Springer homered to right center (400 feet), Kirk scored and Jimenez scored.4–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–4
- 5Garver homered to left center (407 feet), Canzone scored and Robles scored.1–4
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–4
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 21–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 4Kirk hit sacrifice fly to center, Bichette scored.1–1
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–1
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball 30–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging0–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 20–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 3Robles homered to left (424 feet).0–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 57%
- ML TOR +125 / SEA -145
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.3 pts
- SEA: Elo 55.8%, market 57.1%
- Fair odds
- SEA -133
- TOR +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 3.4 – 4.1 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1517 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | +6 | TOR: Jose Berrios: team allows 0.37 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SEA: George Kirby: team allows 0.31 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +41 Elo | SEA 55.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 58.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 57.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 57.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TOR | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 3.827th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 3.73rd of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.6 | Margin | +0.115th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–623rd of 30 |
| 19th of 3020–25 | Road vs home | 30–174th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 42–47 | 38–52 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 21–28 | 21–37 |
| Underdog | 21–19 | 17–15 |
| Overs–unders | 44–44–1 | 36–52–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 6–5 SEA in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 11.