Toronto Blue Jays at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Spencer HorwitzBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Kevin GausmanPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Giants- Heliot RamosBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jordan HicksPitching4.1 IP, 5 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 9Yastrzemski homered to right (392 feet).5–3
- 9Pitch 9 : Ball In Play5–3
- 9Pitch 8 : Ball 35–2
- 9Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul5–2
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball 25–2
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul5–2
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 15–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul5–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul5–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–2
- 5Horwitz homered to right (405 feet).5–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 14–2
- 4Jimenez singled to center, Schneider scored, Kiermaier to third.4–2
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–2
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking3–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 33–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking3–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 23–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 1Ramos homered to left center (389 feet), Bailey scored.3–2
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–2
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 1Jansen homered to left (384 feet).3–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 12–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 1Turner hit sacrifice fly to right, Horwitz scored.2–0
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball 31–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 21–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 1Guerrero Jr. grounded out to second, Springer scored, Horwitz to third.1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Giants 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SF 54%
- ML TOR +110 / SF -130
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.5 pts
- SF: Elo 50.8%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- SF -119
- TOR +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 3.6 – 3.9 SF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1487 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | −2 | TOR: Kevin Gausman: team allows 0.08 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SF: Jordan Hicks: team allows 0.11 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +5 Elo | SF 50.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 51.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 51.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SF 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TOR | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.414th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.824th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.6 | Margin | −0.321st of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 18th of 3022–26 | Road vs home | 26–2012th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 45–47 | 47–45 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 21–28 | 17–25 |
| Underdog | 24–19 | 30–20 |
| Overs–unders | 46–45–1 | 51–40–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 3–2 SF in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.