Colorado Rockies at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Michael TogliaBatting3-4, 3 HR, 3 RBI
- German MarquezPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Mets- Pete AlonsoBatting1-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jose QuintanaPitching5.2 IP, 5 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 8Nimmo grounded into fielder's choice to second, Taylor scored, Lindor out at second, McNeil to third.8–5
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play8–5
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 28–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul8–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul8–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 18–5
- 8McNeil doubled to right, Iglesias scored, Taylor to third.8–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play8–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul8–4
- 8Toglia homered to left center (385 feet).8–3
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play8–3
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking7–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 37–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging7–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 27–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 17–3
- 7Tovar homered to left (367 feet), Blackmon scored.7–3
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play7–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 25–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 15–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging5–3
- 6Toglia homered to left center (372 feet).5–3
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 35–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging5–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 25–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 15–3
- 6Doyle homered to center (430 feet).4–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–3
- 5Toglia homered to center (432 feet).3–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–3
- 4Lindor walked, Iglesias scored, McNeil to second, Taylor to third.2–3
- 4Pitch 7 : Ball 42–3
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball 32–2
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging2–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 22–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 12–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 65%
- ML COL +175 / NYM -210
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.7 pts
- NYM: Elo 63.3%, market 65.1%
- Fair odds
- NYM -186
- COL +186 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.6 – 4.9 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1413 | 1508 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +33 | +15 | COL: German Marquez: team allows 1.64 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · NYM: Jose Quintana: team allows 0.75 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +95 Elo | NYM 63.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 64.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 64.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 65.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| COL | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.96th of 30 |
| 30th of 305.9 | Runs allowed | 4.724th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−1.8 | Margin | +0.215th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–31st of 30 |
| 29th of 3013–36 | Road vs home | 26–2417th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 44–49 | 43–50 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 1–5 | 19–30 |
| Underdog | 43–43 | 24–20 |
| Overs–unders | 52–41 | 50–43 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 4–4 NYM in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 8.