San Francisco Giants at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Thairo EstradaBatting1-3, 2 RBI
- Kyle HarrisonPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Rockies- Jake CaveBatting2-2, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Cal QuantrillPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Tovar homered to left (402 feet).3–7
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–7
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 13–7
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging3–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–7
- 8Cave homered to right center (410 feet), Rodgers scored and Toglia scored.3–6
- 8Pitch 7 : Ball In Play3–6
- 8Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul3–6
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 33–6
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging3–6
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 23–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 13–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–6
- 7Tovar reached on infield single to third, Cave scored on error, Tovar safe at second on throwing error by third baseman Chapman.3–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging3–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–3
- 6Doyle homered to left center (434 feet), Díaz scored.3–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 3Bailey grounded out to second, Soler scored, Wade Jr. to third.3–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–0
- 2Estrada tripled to left, Chapman scored and Yastrzemski scored.2–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Giants 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SF 55%
- ML SF -135 / COL +115
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.6 pts
- SF: Elo 58.9%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- SF -124
- COL +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 5.5 – 5.0 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1489 | 1416 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | −3 | SF: Kyle Harrison: team allows 0.22 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · COL: Cal Quantrill: team allows 0.15 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +62 Elo | SF 58.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 58.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 58.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SF 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SF | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.222nd of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 5.930th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.3 | Margin | −1.729th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–622nd of 30 |
| 26th of 3019–27 | Road vs home | 20–2527th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 48–48 | 45–49 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 17–28 | 1–5 |
| Underdog | 31–20 | 44–43 |
| Overs–unders | 53–42–1 | 53–41 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 14–5 COL in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 19.