San Francisco Giants at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Jorge SolerBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Hayden BirdsongPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 12 K
Rockies- Brendan RodgersBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Ryan FeltnerPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 4Rodgers homered to left (376 feet), McMahon scored.3–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 23–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging3–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 4Chapman scored, Yastrzemski to second on passed ball by Stallings.3–0
- 4Chapman scored, Yastrzemski to second on passed ball by Stallings.3–0
- 3Fitzgerald homered to center (434 feet).2–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 1Soler homered to center (478 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 21–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Giants 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SF 54%
- ML SF -130 / COL +110
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.9 pts
- SF: Elo 58.2%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- SF -119
- COL +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 5.4 – 5.1 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1484 | 1420 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | −7 | SF: Hayden Birdsong: team allows 0.20 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · COL: Austin Gomber: team allows 0.34 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +57 Elo | SF 58.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 57.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 57.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SF 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SF | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.221st of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 5.830th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.3 | Margin | −1.729th of 30 |
| 26th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 26th of 3019–29 | Road vs home | 22–2526th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 48–50 | 47–49 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 17–30 | 1–5 |
| Underdog | 31–20 | 46–43 |
| Overs–unders | 53–44–1 | 53–43 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 14–7 COL in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 21.