Boston Red Sox at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Jarren DuranBatting3-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Nick PivettaPitching2.2 IP, 7 ER, 6 K
Rockies- Brenton DoyleBatting2-4, 1 HR, 5 RBI
- Cal QuantrillPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Duran tripled to right, González scored and Rafaela scored.7–20
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–20
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul7–20
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 17–20
- 8Wong grounded out to third, Hamilton scored.5–20
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–20
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 35–20
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking5–20
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 25–20
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 15–20
- 8Abreu hit sacrifice fly to right, Duran scored, Hamilton to third.4–20
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–20
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul4–20
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 14–20
- 7Hilliard hit sacrifice fly to left, Rodgers scored.3–20
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–20
- 6Doyle homered to left (390 feet), Stallings scored, Hilliard scored and Cave scored.3–19
- 6Pitch 7 : Ball In Play3–19
- 6Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul3–19
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–19
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 33–19
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 23–19
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–19
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 13–19
- 6Hilliard singled to left, Rodgers scored, Stallings to third.3–15
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–15
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–15
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 23–15
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 13–15
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–15
- 6Stallings doubled to left, Bryant scored, Rodgers to third.3–14
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–14
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 13–14
- 5Duran homered to right center (419 feet).3–13
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–13
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–13
- 4Hilliard hit sacrifice fly to right, Toglia scored.2–13
- 4Pitch 8 : Ball In Play2–13
- 4Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul2–13
- 4Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul2–13
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 57%
- ML BOS -150 / COL +125
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.1 pts
- BOS: Elo 60.6%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- BOS -135
- COL +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 5.6 – 4.9 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1508 | 1418 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | +1 | BOS: Nick Pivetta: team allows 0.16 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · COL: Cal Quantrill: team allows 0.04 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +75 Elo | BOS 60.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 57.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 58.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BOS | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.219th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 5.830th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.4 | Margin | −1.729th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3030–21 | Road vs home | 23–2726th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 46–55 | 49–50 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 19–36 | 1–5 |
| Underdog | 27–19 | 48–44 |
| Overs–unders | 47–52–2 | 54–45 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 2–3 COL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.