Boston Red Sox at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Tyler O'NeillBatting2-5, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Cooper CriswellPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Rockies- Charlie BlackmonBatting2-4
- Anthony MolinaPitching3.1 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 3O'Neill homered to left (465 feet).6–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul6–0
- 2Refsnyder doubled to left, Duran scored and Westbrook scored.5–0
- 2Pitch 8 : Ball In Play5–0
- 2Pitch 7 : Ball 35–0
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball 25–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul5–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 15–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul5–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking5–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–0
- 1O'Neill homered to center (437 feet), Devers scored.3–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 33–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 23–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 13–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–0
- 1Devers doubled to center, Duran scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 59%
- ML BOS -160 / COL +135
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.5 pts
- BOS: Elo 58.6%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- BOS -145
- COL +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 6.2 – 5.3 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 11.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1506 | 1420 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | +5 | BOS: Cooper Criswell: team allows 0.14 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · COL: Ty Blach: team allows 0.23 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +60 Elo | BOS 58.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 54.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 55.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BOS | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.219th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 5.830th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −1.629th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3029–21 | Road vs home | 23–2626th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 45–55 | 49–49 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 18–36 | 1–5 |
| Underdog | 27–19 | 48–43 |
| Overs–unders | 47–51–2 | 54–44 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 1–3 COL in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.