Boston Red Sox at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Jamie WestbrookBatting1-2, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Tanner HouckPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Rockies- Charlie BlackmonBatting2-6, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Austin GomberPitching5.2 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 12Tovar singled to center, Cave scored, Schunk to second, Stallings to third.8–9
- 12Pitch 2 : Ball In Play8–9
- 12Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging8–9
- 12Cave singled to left, Rodgers scored on error, Cave safe at second on fielding error by left fielder O'Neill.8–8
- 12Pitch 3 : Ball In Play8–8
- 12Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul8–8
- 12Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul8–8
- 12Abreu singled to right, Rafaela scored.8–7
- 12Pitch 2 : Ball In Play8–7
- 12Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul8–7
- 10Hilliard homered to center (450 feet), Cave scored.7–7
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–7
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging7–7
- 10Devers hit sacrifice fly to left, Abreu scored.7–5
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–5
- 10Smith doubled to center, Duran scored.6–5
- 10Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–5
- 10Pitch 4 : Ball 36–5
- 10Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking6–5
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball 26–5
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 16–5
- 8Wong homered to right (378 feet).5–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging5–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–5
- 7Stallings doubled to right, Rodgers scored.4–5
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–5
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 34–5
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 24–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 14–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–5
- 5Refsnyder singled to left, Duran scored.4–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 14–4
- 5Westbrook homered to center (426 feet), O'Neill scored and González scored.3–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–4
- 3Toglia singled to center, Doyle scored.0–4
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–4
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 61%
- ML BOS -175 / COL +145
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.5 pts
- BOS: Elo 61.4%, market 60.9%
- Fair odds
- BOS -156
- COL +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 5.2 – 4.3 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1419 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | −2 | BOS: Tanner Houck: team allows 0.40 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · COL: Austin Gomber: team allows 0.11 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +80 Elo | BOS 61.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 62.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 62.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 60.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BOS | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.220th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 5.830th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −1.629th of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3029–20 | Road vs home | 22–2626th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 45–54 | 48–49 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 18–35 | 1–5 |
| Underdog | 27–19 | 47–43 |
| Overs–unders | 46–51–2 | 53–44 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 1–2 COL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.