Colorado Rockies at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Brenton DoyleBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Kyle FreelandPitching4.0 IP, 6 ER, 8 K
Giants- Tyler FitzgeraldBatting3-5, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Kyle HarrisonPitching6.2 IP, 1 ER, 11 K
Scoring summary
- 9Díaz grounded out to third, Bryant scored.4–11
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–11
- 8Ramos homered to left (395 feet), Soler scored and Fitzgerald scored.3–11
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–11
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging3–11
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–11
- 8Doyle tripled to right, Stallings scored and Tovar scored.3–8
- 8Pitch 7 : Ball In Play3–8
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball 33–8
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–8
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–8
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging3–8
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 23–8
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–8
- 6Fitzgerald homered to left center (397 feet), Soler scored.1–8
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–8
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging1–8
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 21–8
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–8
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–8
- 4Fitzgerald homered to left (400 feet), Soler scored.1–6
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–6
- 4Soler reached on infield single to shortstop, Schmitt scored.1–4
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–4
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 21–4
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking1–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 11–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–4
- 3Tovar hit sacrifice fly to center, Toglia scored.1–3
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul1–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 21–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–3
- 2Soler singled to center, Bailey scored, Hill to third.0–3
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–3
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
- 2Schmitt hit sacrifice fly to second, Yastrzemski scored.0–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Giants 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SF 60%
- ML COL +140 / SF -165
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.5 pts
- SF: Elo 60.4%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- SF -149
- COL +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.3 – 4.2 SF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1423 | 1485 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | +1 | COL: Kyle Freeland: team allows 0.39 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SF: Kyle Harrison: team allows 0.03 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +73 Elo | SF 60.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 62.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 62.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SF 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| COL | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.315th of 30 |
| 30th of 305.8 | Runs allowed | 4.723rd of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.5 | Margin | −0.321st of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 29th of 3014–36 | Road vs home | 28–2211th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 50–50 | 50–53 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 1–5 | 17–31 |
| Underdog | 49–44 | 33–22 |
| Overs–unders | 55–45 | 55–47–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 7–15 SF in their last 22 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 22.