San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Matt ChapmanBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Robbie RayPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Dodgers- Freddie FreemanBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Tyler GlasnowPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Biggio grounded into fielder's choice to first, Pages scored, Barnes out at second.8–3
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play8–3
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking8–3
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 38–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 28–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging8–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 18–3
- 8Freeman doubled to center, Ahmed scored.8–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play8–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 28–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 18–2
- 8Chapman singled to center, Wade Jr. scored, Ramos to second.8–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play8–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 28–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 18–1
- 8Ramos singled to right, Bailey scored and Yastrzemski scored, Wade Jr. to second.7–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–1
- 8Soler grounded out to shortstop, Fitzgerald scored, Bailey to second, Yastrzemski to third.5–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–1
- 8Bailey singled to right, Conforto scored, Yastrzemski to second, Fitzgerald to third.4–1
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–1
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging4–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 14–1
- 8Yastrzemski singled to right, Chapman scored, Fitzgerald to second, Conforto to third.3–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 23–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 4Yastrzemski singled to center, Fitzgerald scored.2–1
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–1
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging2–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 32–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 22–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 4Chapman homered to center (417 feet).1–1
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 63%
- ML SF +160 / LAD -190
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.5 pts
- LAD: Elo 64.6%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- LAD -170
- SF +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 3.2 – 4.3 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1483 | 1551 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | +11 | SF: Robbie Ray: team allows 0.36 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · LAD: Tyler Glasnow: team allows 0.56 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +104 Elo | LAD 64.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 67.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 67.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 63.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SF | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 5.01st of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.08th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.3 | Margin | +1.02nd of 30 |
| 26th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 26th of 3020–31 | Road vs home | 33–183rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 49–52 | 49–53 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 17–31 | 45–45 |
| Underdog | 32–21 | 4–8 |
| Overs–unders | 53–47–1 | 51–50–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 9–15 LAD in their last 24 meetings; the forecast called 15 of 24.